Russia may be preparing provocations against the Baltic states or Poland as Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory, The Guardian reported on Friday, June 26, citing intelligence and political sources from NATO’s eastern flank.
According to the newspaper, officials believe the Kremlin could seek to test NATO’s cohesion through hybrid operations rather than by opening a second military front.
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Latvian intelligence warned earlier this week that it had identified signs Russia was preparing “military provocations” against the Baltic states or Poland.
“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland,” Latvian intelligence said.
Officials warn of hybrid attacks
Latvian intelligence said Russia currently lacks the capability to launch a conventional attack against NATO but could instead carry out hybrid operations involving drones, missiles or other provocations.
Officials said such actions would aim to pressure NATO members into reducing military support for Ukraine.
A senior political source from another NATO member state also told The Guardian that intelligence suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states.”
The source said Moscow could attempt to test US commitments to defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania under NATO’s collective defense clause.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed those concerns on Thursday after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdańsk.
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“We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months,” Tusk said.
Ukraine’s strikes increase pressure on the Kremlin
The Guardian said the warnings come as Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign increasingly reaches strategic targets around Moscow and St. Petersburg, putting the Kremlin under growing military and political pressure.
Russia expert Keir Giles of Chatham House told the newspaper Moscow could look for ways to change the course of the war by expanding tensions beyond Ukraine.
“Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend through horizontal escalation,” Giles said. “We should not expect Russia to passively lose.”
A Western military source also warned that the coming weeks could be particularly dangerous if the Kremlin concludes that the battlefield situation is turning against Russia.
“I cannot lie, that is a period of danger,” the source said.
Western officials have repeatedly accused Russia of carrying out hybrid operations across Europe since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, including cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns. In 2024, several European governments linked Russia to incendiary devices hidden in DHL parcels sent through logistics networks in the UK, Poland and Germany.
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