Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The Russian oil refining industry is failing to meet the rising domestic gasoline demand as the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining capacity.
- A Russian state-owned polling institution indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings continued to fall in early July 2026 after a sharp decline at the end of June 2026.
- Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski confirmed recent US warnings that Russia might be planning to conduct provocations against unspecified NATO states.
- Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Russia on the night of July 9 to 10. Russian forces launched 137 drones against Ukraine overnight.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.
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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2026
War in Ukraine - Latest update, key takeaways and map from the Institute for the Study of War on July 1, 2026
July 2, 2026