Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian forces launched their fourth large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine since June 1 on the night of July 5 to 6. This latest strike series again heavily targeted Kyiv City and caused dozens of civilian casualties.
- Russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine’s depleted stocks of anti-ballistic missile interceptors to maximize the destructive potential of their strike packages.
- Russian forces have been decreasing the number of ballistic missiles in each strike package in recent weeks as Ukraine’s interception rate has declined.
- Russian forces likely purposely timed this latest large-scale strike package to generate informational effects ahead of the July 7 to 8 NATO summit in Turkey.
- Ukrainian forces conducted their deepest drone strike against Russia thus far in the war, striking the largest oil refinery in Russia over 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
- Russian officials are trying to present Russia as a willing negotiator and Ukraine as the obstacle to peace ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meetings with Ukraine and Europe at the July 7 to 8 NATO summit.
- Russia is engaging in increasingly risky kinetic behaviors against NATO member states as part of its “Phase Zero” condition-setting campaign.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.
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