ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city.
• Putin likely staged the meeting with his commanders late on July 3 at least in part to influence Western media coverage of the war into the weekend, particularly the July 4 holiday in the United States.
• The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline.
• The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia.
• Unknown actors reportedly detonated an explosive against a car carrying members of the Rylsk Raion, Kursk Oblast administration on July 3.
• Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on July 3.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a long-range strike against Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 105 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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