ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Ukrainian government approved a series of personnel changes in the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed an interim defense minister on July 16.
• Ukraine’s drone strike campaign aimed at denying Russia the ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea is likely further degrading Russia’s already outstretched air defenses and imposing new protection dilemmas.
• Russia is reportedly turning to India for additional gasoline supplies as Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to reduce Russian oil refining capacity.
• Russian elites are reportedly moving money abroad to protect their financial assets from Russian economic risk and the Kremlin’s effort to nationalize private assets.
• Polish authorities are warning that Russia is conducting surveillance of NATO air defense integration exercises near the Baltic Sea, likely as part of Russia’s Phase Zero efforts.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and energy infrastructure in Russia on July 15 and 16.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russia launched eight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, four Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, one Kh-21P anti-radar missile, and 146 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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