- Russia has likely augmented some of its units west of the Dnipro River with mobilised reservists. However, this is from an extremely low level of manning.
- In September 2022, Russian officers described companies in the Kherson sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel.
- In the last six weeks there has been a clear move from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most areas of the front line in Ukraine.
- This is likely due to a more realistic assessment that the severely undermanned, poorly trained force in Ukraine is currently only capable of defensive operations.
- Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating long-term defensive lines in Ukraine, its operational design will remain vulnerable.
- To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces which are capable of dynamically countering Ukrainian breakthroughs and conducting their own large-scale offensive operations.
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