• The Wagner Group is likely moving towards a down-sizing and reconfiguration process, largely to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure.
  • Since the abortive mutiny of June 2023, the Russian state has acted against some other business interests of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin no longer funds the group.
  • If the Russian state no longer pays Wagner, the second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities.
  • However, the sizable force would be a significant and potentially unwelcome drain on modest Belarusian resources.
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