- Russia continues to commit what are nominally six separate armies to its Donbas offensive. At full strength, before the invasion, these formations were established for around 150,000 personnel.
- In recent weeks, Russia has often operated with company-sized groupings of around 100 personnel when undertaking offensive operations in any one sector at a time.
- Russia has struggled to sustain effective offensive combat power since the start of the invasion and this problem is likely becoming increasingly acute.
- As well as dealing with severe under-manning, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbas or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson sector.
- Russia’s stated immediate policy objective is to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
- While Russia may still make further territorial gains, their operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow without a significant operational pause for reorganisation and refit.
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News platforms said it was the long-range version of the US weapon but there was no early Kyiv confirmation. It may have been Ukraine’s most ambitious ballistic missile strike of the war so far.
Apr. 30
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