ANALYSIS: Russia Could Test Launch Oreshnik Missile Friday Morning – NOTAM

Moscow could launch its “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Friday morning, potentially against Ukraine, based on multiple Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) issued by Russian authorities in recent days.

On Tuesday, Dec. 10, Russia issued a NOTAM numbered N2201/24, valid between 8 a.m. and noon coordinated universal time (UTC) on Friday, Dec. 13, over the same “Kapustin Yar” test site used for its last “Oreshnik” strike against Ukraine’s Dnipro on Nov. 21.

A NOTAM is a notice issued to pilots containing essential information about changes or hazards in the airspace, such as closures, restrictions or other operational details that may affect flight safety.

Using the details and coordinates provided in the NOTAM, Kyiv Post recreated the closed airspace and compared it with the NOTAM issued during the last strike, numbered N1257/24, which shared similar details and covered the same area. 

Map recreated by Kyiv Post based on NOTAM N2201/24 issued by Russian authorities on Dec. 10.

NOTAM N1257/24, in place during Russia’s last “Oreshnik” launch, closed off the same airspace with similar caution for pilots. 

Map recreated by Kyiv Post based on NOTAM N1257/24 issued by Russian authorities on Nov. 20.

Despite the similarities between the two notices, the latest NOTAM does not necessarily indicate another launch of Russia’s “Oreshnik” missile.

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On Wednesday evening, Moscow vowed “appropriate measures” in response to Kyiv’s strike on Taganrog in Russia’s Rostov region the same morning, a day after the N2201/24 NOTAM was issued. It is unclear if the NOTAM is related to Moscow’s proposed retaliatory strike since it predated Ukraine’s Taganrog strike. 

Similarly, Russia also issued NOTAM N2061/24 on Dec. 7, valid daily between 8 p.m. and noon from Dec. 16 to Dec. 21. However, the area covered by this notice extends into Kazakhstan, with the coordinate center outside the closed airspace. The area covered is similar to another NOTAM titled N1506/24 at the end of November. 

Map recreated by Kyiv Post based on NOTAM N2061/24 issued by Russian authorities on Dec. 7.

On Sunday, Dec. 8, the US Embassy in Ukraine issued a warning about “increased threats from Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure.”

The US Embassy issued a similar warning on Nov. 20, a day before Russia fired its “Oreshnik” IRBM against Dnipro – the first combat use of such weapons in history – in what Moscow claimed to be retaliation in response to Kyiv’s first ATACMS use against targets in Russia’s Bryansk region four days prior.