ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Two high-ranking members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle reiterated Putin’s June 2024 non-negotiable demands that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, extensive territorial concessions, and long-term limitations on Ukraine’s military after US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s April 11 meeting with Putin.
• Kremlin officials continue to set informational conditions to demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to justify Russia’s ambitions of asserting control over independent countries, including NATO member states.
• Naryshkin threatened a Russian attack against NATO states in response to NATO states building up their defenses in line with US President Donald Trump’s push for Europe to increase its own defense capabilities.
• Lavrov reiterated Putin’s rejection of Trump’s proposal for a 30-day full ceasefire.
• Russia may recognize the end of the 30-day energy infrastructure strikes ceasefire soon and intensify its long-range strikes against Ukraine, but the exact parameters of the ceasefire — including its end date — remain unclear.
• Ukraine’s National Guard announced on April 15 the formation of two new army corps on the basis of two existing brigades, amid Ukraine’s continued efforts to transition to a corps structure.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Authors: Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter.

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