Ukrainian Women Need to Give Birth to Three Children Each to Avoid ‘Demographic Catastrophe’

Ukraine must dramatically raise its birth rate with an average three children per woman or face a deepening population crisis that could cripple the country’s future, a senior demographer has warned.

According to Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine’s population within its 1991 borders stood at around 42 million at the start of 2022.

As of early 2025, that number has plunged to roughly 34 million, including occupied territories and Crimea.

He told the RBC-Ukraine news agency: “In order for the population not to decline due to natural factors, 100 women should give birth to 210-220 children.

“We are talking about Ukrainian women of reproductive age, this is from 15 to 49 years old.

“But it should be borne in mind that there are women who do not want to have children, some of whom cannot give birth due to illness.

“Therefore, the rest of Ukrainian women need to give birth to about three children each, so that the population does not decrease.”

He added that such birth rates are unheard of in modern Europe, with the EU average being 150–160 children per 100 women

Demographic time bomb

The warning comes as Ukraine faces the compounded effects of war, migration, and a generational decline in births.

He added that young Ukrainians aged 18–25 in 2025 were born during 2001—a year that marked the country’s lowest birth rate on record.

But some experts believe childbirth alone won’t be enough to avert disaster.

Vasily Voskoboinik, head of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, told the country’s state TV in February that the country may need to import over 8 million foreign workers just to stay afloat.

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“We have a demographic catastrophe. Either we encourage our women to have more children, which would take 18–20 years to reflect in the labor market, or we must realistically seek labor migration from other countries,” he said.

Statistics published in 2024 on Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region saw deaths outnumber births by more than 3.5 to 1, a ratio experts say is unsustainable.