Russia Edges Toward Sumy: City Within Shelling Distance, But Not Fall

Russian forces are intensifying their offensive in the northern Sumy region along three axes north and northeast of Sumy City, with the apparent goal of positioning artillery within striking distance of the regional capital, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As per the latest report from the Institute, footage published on June 2 confirms recent Russian advances north of Andriivka and northeast of Yablunivka.

Russian military bloggers also claimed that troops captured Oleksiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Kindrativka, and advanced into northern Andriivka and west of Yablunivka and Kostyantynivka.

Ground assaults have intensified in these directions, targeting areas north of Sumy toward Andriivka and northeast toward Yunakivka and Myropillya.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that elements of the Russian 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District) and the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) are engaged along the Kostyantynivka-Kindrativka and Volodymyrivka-Oleksiivka lines.

Meanwhile, elite Russian airborne regiments - the 104th, 234th, and 237th VDV of the 76th VDV Division - are operating along the Loknya - Yunakivka line.

Reinforcements have been pulled in from other sectors, including units of the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Lyman and Chasiv Yar directions, the report reads.

Other Topics of Interest

Attack on Kyiv: Escalation or Intimidation?

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and nearby areas, while warning of further strikes on “decision-making centres.” Commentators see the attacks as pressure on Donald Trump and a sign of Kremlin desperation, while critics say Europe remains too slow and hesitant in supporting Ukraine militarily and diplomatically.

ISW adds that Russia appears to be trying to push to the Khotin-Khrapivshchyna line, some 12 to 15 kilometers from Sumy City, potentially allowing them to shell the city with conventional tube artillery.

Russian officials have repeatedly called for creating a “buffer zone” in this region and appear to be shaping the narrative to justify a broader offensive.

Despite this, ISW maintains that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve a full occupation of the city in the foreseeable future.

“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term, as Russian forces have not seized a Ukrainian city with a pre-war population greater than 100,000 since July 2022,” the report reads.

At the end of May, Ukraine began evacuating 11 more border villages in the region in anticipation of a Russian offensive. The move followed reports that Russian forces had breached parts of the Yunakivka and Khotin communities.

The Sumy Regional Military Administration confirmed the evacuation order via social media, targeting settlements including Horobivka, Shtanivka, Voronivka, and others near the border. As of May 31, a total of 213 settlements in the region had been ordered to evacuate.

President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned that Russia has massed about 50,000 troops near Sumy, and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed mounting pressure in the area. During the latest visit of the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Russian officials floated the idea of seizing Sumy City.

Some observers believe Moscow is delaying peace talks in favor of launching a broader summer offensive.

In what the ISW described as an “undoubtedly orchestrated” meeting on May 20, Putin appeared to justify renewed efforts to seize Sumy City and potentially annex the Sumy region.

During the meeting with officials from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the head of Glushkovsky Raion, Pavel Zolotarev, called for the creation of a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory.

Putin asked how deep this buffer should be, to which Zolotarev responded that Russia should take “at least Sumy [City]” and added that Russia “should be bigger.”

Acting Kursk regional governor Alexander Khinshtein later echoed the sentiment, writing on Telegram that his grandfather was from the Sumy region and “this land is not foreign to [us].”

The ISW also noted that Russia’s delegation threatened to seize the Sumy region during peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16.