ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russia baselessly accused Ukraine of failing to conduct a prisoner of war (POW) exchange and to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers on June 6 – part of the Kremlin’s efforts to undermine mutually agreed upon confidence building measures with Ukraine.
• Russian officials continue efforts to deflect blame away from Russia and onto Western states for the lack of progress toward a peace settlement.
• US President Donald Trump signaled on June 6 that he could be willing to increase sanctions against Russia. Russia’s economic struggles, however, have been and will continue to be driven by Russian military losses on the battlefield. Maximum US economic pressure against Russia is not possible without continued military sales to Ukraine.
• Any increased economic pressure against Russia – while a positive policy development – by itself is insufficient to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table or change Putin’s theory of victory.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

Authors: Olivia Gibson, Anna Harvey, Christina Harward, and George Barros with William Runkel and Nate Trotter.

See the original here.