ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strike against Russia on the night of June 17 to 18, heavily targeting Moscow City and striking the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time in two days.
• Russian milbloggers responded to the strikes on Moscow City by remarking on the domestic realities of the war and expressed concerns about Russian air defenses and censorship.
• Repeated Ukrainian strikes against heavily defended Russian deep rear areas like Moscow City continue to expose Russia’s weaknesses and inability to defend its domestic populace.
• The Kremlin is already setting conditions to weaponize claims of a recent alleged Ukrainian strike on a civilian passenger bus in Russia to justify its next massive long-range strike package against Ukraine.
• Russia is reportedly importing gasoline from unspecified Asian countries to respond to domestic shortages that are likely to worsen as the summer continues.
• Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including via the purchase of US-produced weapons.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
• Russian forces launched seven Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-400 air defense missiles and 239 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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