ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US President Donald Trump’s call for a quick peace in Ukraine during a phone call with Trump on July 3.
• Putin’s stated commitment to his goals in Ukraine, including eliminating the so-called “root causes” of the war directly contradicts his claim that Russia supports meaningful negotiations to end the war.
• Details about the recent US suspension of aid to Ukraine remain unclear.
• A Ukrainian strike killed the deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy in Kursk Oblast, and an unknown actor may have assassinated a high-ranking Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) official in Moscow City.
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reportedly assassinated the former occupation mayor of Luhansk City.
• Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, but the United States remains the only Ukrainian partner that can provide certain critical weapons systems – especially air defenses -- at scale and quickly.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Authors: Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Jennie Olmsted, Daria Novikov, Jessica Sobieski, and George Barros.

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