ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Private and public Kremlin statements indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before he will initiate a peace agreement.
• Helping Ukraine inflict battlefield setbacks on Russian forces remains essential to efforts to persuade Putin to reevaluate his position on the war and negotiations.
• The Kremlin insider sources likely leaked this information in an attempt to obfuscate Putin’s actual, more extreme war aims.
• The Kremlin also likely intends for these leaks to Western media to advance its ongoing effort to break Ukrainian and Western morale.
• Putin has intentionally put himself in a position where he cannot present any peace settlement that falls short of his original war aims as a victory to the Russian military or people.
• Russia announced on August 4 that it will withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, likely as a rhetorical response to US President Donald Trump’s August 1 announcement about the redeployment of US nuclear submarines toward Russia. Russia’s INF Treaty withdrawal does not portend a shift in Russia’s use of shorter- and intermediate-range missiles, however.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, and Toretsk.

Authors: Christina Harward, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, Jessica Sobieski, Anna Harvey, and Karolina Hird.

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