ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), but these advances are unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Russian tactics in Pokrovsk have entrapped civilians within the city, intensifying the risk of indiscriminate civilian harm.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 28 that Ukraine and Sweden agreed to localize production of Swedish Gripen fighter jets in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is resurrecting Soviet-era narratives of Russia’s perpetual victimhood in the face of perceived external aggression in a dual attempt to justify Russia’s future aggression against both Europe and the Asia-Pacific and the longer-term mobilization of Russian society.
• Russian officials also appear to be setting conditions to justify further militarization and full-scale mobilization of Russian society.
• The Russian State Duma approved a bill on October 28 allowing Russian authorities to recruit members of Russia’s “human mobilization reserve” to protect Russian critical facilities and infrastructure.
• European authorities recently reported unidentified drones near airports in Spain and a military base in Estonia.
• European officials continue to report on Russian hybrid operations in Europe over the past several years.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and the Pokrovsk direction and marginally advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area.

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