• Since 10 October, Russia has maintained a heightened tempo of long-range strikes against targets across Ukraine.
  • These have been conducted by cruise missiles, air defence missiles in a surface-to-surface role, and Iranian-provided Shahed-136 one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles.
  • It is highly likely that a key objective of this strike campaign is to cause wide-spread damage to Ukraine’s energy distribution network.
  • As Russia has suffered battlefield setbacks since August, it has highly likely gained a greater willingness to strike civilian infrastructure in addition to Ukrainian military targets.
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