Russian troops’ recent advances in the Zaporizhzhia region under the cover of fog, near the Ukrainian stronghold of Hulyaipole, are now threatening Kyiv’s grip on the city – and potentially the wider region.
According to an open-source battlefield map, Russia has deployed multiple regiments and brigades north of Hulyaipole as of Saturday, with breakthroughs indicating an attempt to encircle the city on multiple fronts.
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At present, Russia has occupied over 73% of central Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, including the nation’s largest nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, though the regional capital Zaporizhzhia remains firmly under Ukrainian control.
Where is Hulyaipole?
Hulyaipole is located approximately 87 km (54 miles) east of Zaporizhzhia.
The city was also home to Nestor Makhno, a Ukrainian anarchist revolutionary who led the Revolutionary Insurgent Army of Ukraine after the 1917 Russian Revolution, opposing the White Army and the Bolsheviks before the group’s defeat by the latter in 1921.
Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, said on Friday that the city is the largest settlement and a key transport hub for that sector, with logistical routes running north toward Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region and west toward Zaporizhzhia.
As of Friday, fighting had reached within 10 km (6 miles) of the city, according to Voloshyn, as reported by state media Ukrinform.
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Russia’s advances, encirclement concerns
Battlefield data showed Russian troops capturing multiple kilometers east and north of Hulyaipole throughout November.
On Monday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Zatyshshya, a settlement less than 4 km (2.8 miles) immediately northeast of Hulyaipole, a claim disputed by Ukraine’s General Staff as it said it repelled 17 Russian attacks in settlements around the city, including Zatyshshya, on Sunday.
According to the open-source battlefield map DeepState UA, Russia has captured multiple settlements east of Hulyaipole over the course of three weeks.
Data from DeepState UA suggests that Russia has deployed its 14th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, 218th Tank Regiment, and 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment northeast of Hulyaipole.
While rejecting claims that the city was being encircled on Friday, Voloshyn acknowledged the situation as “quite difficult” in a Sunday interview with Espreso TV.
“In the Hulyaipole sector, and in the south in general, the situation has been quite difficult for the last few days, and even weeks. The enemy is increasing the number of combat engagements and the use of various types of weapons, particularly artillery, drones, and aviation,” Voloshyn said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Thursday wrote that it believes “Russian forces are exploiting the cover of fog that inhibits Ukrainian drone operations to launch attacks” by citing Ukrainian frontline accounts.
Voloshyn added on Sunday that there have been Russian infiltration attempts into the city.
“The situation in the Hulyaipole sector is one of the most complex along the entire front line of the Russo-Ukrainian war… Russia attempted to assault our positions near the settlements of Varvarivka, Yablukove, Rivnopillya, Chervone, and Pryluky. The enemy also tried to infiltrate the outskirts of Hulyaipole and Varvarivka,” he added.
Analysts’ assessment of the Hulyaipole developments
Most analysts believe Russia’s strategy is to bypass Hulyaipole itself.
According to military analyst Denys Popovych on Kyiv24, the key sign of the recent advances is how Russian troops are bypassing major fortifications in the south, potentially opening a less-resisted path towards Zaporizhzhia itself – which is the strategic target.
“As for fortifications, the enemy is bypassing them. This is what makes advances toward Hulyaipole and Orikhiv dangerous, as well as the creation of positions for a possible future push toward Zaporizhzhia – in a week, a month, or two months,” Popovych said, as reported by local media TSN.
Popovych said if Hulyaipole is to fall, Zaporizhzhia and Orikhiv, another stronghold on the front, would be next.
Military analyst Ivan Tymochko told Espreso TV that Hulyaipole is a railway hub of interest to Russia, but current movements suggest that Moscow is aiming for smaller settlements, as it “[lacks] the strength for an offensive” on places like Hulyaipole.
“It is clear that Hulyaipole is a priority for the invaders. However, we should not forget that at this stage, the Russian forces lack the strength for an offensive on such a settlement and fortified area,” Tymochko said.
“Therefore, they are currently trying to advance through small settlements and establish positions there.”
Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera that Russia has been probing weak spots in Ukrainian lines and has kept pushing forward while it can.
Mitrokhin asserted that current developments suggest Kyiv troops are bogged down elsewhere as Russia shifts its resources to less-defended areas – meaning Russia is gaining ground while Ukraine is losing resources.
He believes if Hulyaipole is to fall, it would fall fast, “possibly without much fighting.”
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