ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials continue to express support for the latest 19-point peace plan and demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to engage in further talks.
• Russian officials are attempting to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit to conceal the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to compromise and its commitment to its maximalist demands.
• Russia killed at least seven Ukrainian civilians and injured at least 20 in Kyiv City and struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure during combined missile and drone strikes on the night of November 24 to 25.
• Russian drones violated Romanian and Moldovan airspaces on the night of November 24 to 25 during combined missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.
• The situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains serious and dynamic as Russian forces continue to leverage their new offensive template to seize Pokrovsk and encircle Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad.
• Russian forces are employing their new offensive template in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize Kostyantynivka and threaten the Ukrainian Fortress Belt from the south.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.

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