ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide “robust” security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with “NATO-like” security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
• Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people comparable to Nazi Germany in an effort to further militarize Russian society.
• The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and marginally advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical areas.

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