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War in Ukraine Europe

Not NATO, Not Minsk: Europe’s New Security Plan for Ukraine

In this analytical explainer, we break down the Declaration of Paris, announced by European leaders with US backing, and examine what it actually offers Ukraine — and what it does not.

Jan. 7, 2026

Europe and the United States have backed a new security framework for Ukraine — one that stops short of NATO membership, but goes further than any previous arrangement. 

In this analytical explainer, we break down the Declaration of Paris, announced by European leaders with US backing, and examine what it actually offers Ukraine — and what it does not. 

The framework envisions post-ceasefire security guarantees, possible Western troop deployments, and new enforcement mechanisms that differ sharply from failed agreements like Minsk. But major questions remain about timing, enforcement, and whether Russia would ever accept such terms. 

In this video, we explain:

– What the Declaration of Paris includes — and what it leaves out

– Why this framework is not NATO, but not Minsk either

– How Europe is taking the lead, with US support

– What role Western troops could play after a ceasefire

– Why security guarantees are still conditional

– What this means for Ukraine’s long-term defense and European security