On June 19, the US and Iran are supposed to sign their draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that was published on June 17. Since US President Donald Trump threatens to move on to the Russia-Ukraine war after this event, Ukraine needs to study it and the US behavior carefully.
It looks as if the Iranians formulated their most outlandish wish list and Trump just approved it. Presumably Trump ignored the diplomacy (as usual) and capitulated on his 80th birthday, making the deadline more important than the substance. This MoU is a tragicomic result of an unjustified and meaningless war instigated by Trump.
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The Iranian regime has survived and probably got worse. It can celebrate a total victory over the US. As a bonus, it has split the US from Israel and discredited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Yet among the 14 conditions there are two positive agreements, restoring the status quo ante:
First, Iran and the US “declare an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts.” Still there are caveats to Iran’s benefit. It includes “allies” and Lebanon, which means that the US prohibits Israel to bomb Lebanon and Hezbollah, while Israel did not take part in these negotiations. So far, Israel had appeared an ally of the US, but Trump suddenly transformed it to a servant. In case Israel does not accept its subservient role, it might become an enemy of the US.
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Second, both sides commit themselves to opening for full traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. To the US this was obviously the most important condition, but the strait was open until Trump started his unfortunate war.
Furthermore, Iran “reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons,” as it did in the multilateral 2015 agreement with former US President Barack Obama.
For the rest, there are only US concessions to Iran: Both countries undertake “to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs,” that is, the US will not work for regime change in Iran, which Trump initially mentioned as his major aim.
The economic benefits the US offers Iran are extraordinary:
1. To ensure together with regional partners a development fund for Iran “of at least $300 billion.”
2. To end “all types of sanctions currently facing” Iran.
3. The US Treasury “will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products...and all related services...”
4. The US undertakes to make sure that all frozen Iranian funds “will be released and made fully available.” This involves tens of billions of dollars.
The final agreement “will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council,” which gives China and Russia a veto.
Iran greatly benefited from what is not mentioned. Nothing is stated about Iranian proxy forces abroad or ballistic missiles or even what will happen with the Iranian uranium.
Let us hope that this unfortunate war has ended, but Trump has reinforced the terrible Iranian regime at an enormous cost. “Stupid does as stupid is.” The US has never made a worse agreement. Nor has it ever started a more unjustified and counterproductive war.
Ukraine needs to draw many conclusions from this extraordinary US debacle. The most obvious observation is that the US under Trump is not the least reliable. However dubious Netanyahu may be, he appears to have been Trump’s most loyal ally, therefore Trump let him hang dry.
Trump’s administration is as incompetent and ignorant as it gets. No normal country would have started this war and no normal country would have concluded such a memorandum of understanding.
Trump decides everything himself and is allergic to competence and knowledge. Where were Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner? We don’t know but they do not appear to have had any influence.
Trump did not want any diplomats involved, and in the US the president decides far too much. The outcome was an agreement that a first-year diplomat would have deemed substandard.
What interests inspire Trump? He does not think of his country, and even less of allies, but he thinks of himself. Trump wanted to have a nice event on his 80th birthday, apart from a brutal cage fight, so he decided to end the war with Iran, ignoring both national and allied interests. The main victim is Netanyahu. The obvious conclusion is that Ukraine must not allow this egotistical scatterbrain to influence anything.
Trump loves dictators – the more cruel the better. His favorites are Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Alexander Lukashenko, Xi Jinping, Al-Sissi, etc. He cannot stand democracy or the rule of law.
The overall conclusions are pretty devastating. Trump is useless in foreign policy, both with regard to military force and diplomacy. He is unable to pursue meaningful negotiations. He opposes democracy and Europe and has time and again clarified that he prefers Putin and his “genius.”
The best Ukraine can do is to tell Trump and his ignorant servants to stay out of Russia’s war against Ukraine. This year, Ukraine has won the upper hand in that war after it stopped getting any support from the US and stopped listening to American nonsense.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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