According to a report in the daily update from the Institute for the Study of War on Feb. 25, based on an article published the previous day in the Wall Street Journal:  

“UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms.

The WSJ reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression.

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The WSJ noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however.

The WSJ contrasted these officials’ private reservations with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which did not mention peace negotiations—and with Central and Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression.

NATO Needs to Get its Act Together Now, Before it’s Too Late
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NATO Needs to Get its Act Together Now, Before it’s Too Late

With the US dithering, the implications need to be recognized and decisive action taken to avoid disaster in the shape of a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.”

 

Authors: Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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Comments (2)

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BG Davis
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More promises and continued failure to arm Ukraine properly. This is almost as bad as Czechoslovakia in 1968: the West encourages and promises, then fails to provide needed support.

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Mike Richard
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Putin revealed his criminal mindset with his latest speeches. Peace with him is impossible because he sees his Ukrainian invasion as a "turf war" with a rival "gang" that he calls the West, or NATO. He says they are seeking world domination. More than 140 countries who are UN members instead see the war as a "police" action to uphold the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It is impossible to negotiate concessions with a criminal organization. They can only be arrested, prosecuted and punished.

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