• Since mid-July 2023, at least several thousand Wagner troops have likely established themselves at a military camp at Tsel, in central Belarus. Imagery shows that since mid-July 2023, hundreds of vehicles have arrived at the previously mostly empty facility.
  • Separate reports suggest most of the visible vehicles are trucks and minibuses with few armoured combat vehicles. It remains unclear what has happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine; there is a realistic possibility that it was forced to return these to the Russian military.
  • Wagner’s ability to secure heavy equipment and enablers such as air transport will be key factors in its future combat effectiveness.
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