·      Top 9 Headlines

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      Infographic of the Day

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

Headlines

1.     Search and rescue operations in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih were completed after a Russian Iskandr ballistic cruise missile attack that killed six and wounded 69 civilians. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his nightly address, said: “It is necessary that our military has enough long-range weapons and enough means of defeating terrorists.” He further called for international action to “significantly limit the delivery channels to Russia of critical components for the production of missiles.” In the southern city of Kherson, Russian shelling killed four and injured another 17, said the head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak: "The enemy is hitting residential neighbourhoods."

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2.     Drones appeared to strike Moscow, including an office tower in the “Moscow City” precinct, for the second day in a row, according to Russian media outlets.

3.     The use of nuclear weapons would have “serious consequences for the Russian Federation,” said a representative of the US National Security Council. The White House called comments by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, that Russia could use nuclear weapons in the event of a successful counteroffensive by Ukraine, as “reckless and irresponsible.”

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024
Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

4.     President Zelensky may attend the next UN General Assembly in New York in September, Bloomberg reported. Zelensky could use the appearance to advocate his 10 Point Peace Formula.

5.     American officials will participate in peace talks regarding Ukraine in Saudi Arabia in early August 2023. A US State Department spokesperson also said negotiations will take place this week about long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, following promises at the NATO Summit. Meanwhile, the President of Mexico called for an end to the “irrational” war in Ukraine and to involve a representative of Russia in the Saudi meeting. Obrador said Mexico will only participate if Ukraine and Russia are present at the same time.

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6.     “Malicious” pro-Russian narratives are being used in video games and platforms popular with Russian gamers, the New York Times reported. Researchers found examples of pro-Kremlin propaganda in Minecraft, Roblox, World of Tanks and World of Warships, Fly Corp, Armored Warfare and War Thunder.

7.     The EU has imposed sanctions on a Kremlin-controlled disinformation network intended to undermine Western support for Ukraine, RFN reported. The sanctions target seven Russian individuals and five entities involved in an operation called Recent Reliable News. It ran fake accounts on social media and fake websites posing as EU government agencies. The Russian government and intelligence services were involved in the operation, according to statement.

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8.     Russia has “adopted” about 4.8 million residents of Ukraine, including more than 700,000 children, according to its so-called Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, who is indicted for war crimes. Dmytro Lubinets, the Human Rights Commissioner of the Supreme Council of Ukraine, said that Lvova-Belova’s report is direct evidence for the International Criminal Court (ICC).

9.     Russia has imported more than $502 million worth of chips from Western companies, which are used to manufacture missiles and other types of weapons, in the last six months, according to a Russian publication. Russian authorities have cleared customs of the goods of American companies Analog Devices Inc. worth more than $98 million, Xilinx more than $75 million, Microchip Technology more than $42 million, Texas Instruments no less than $38 million, and Infineon, Germany’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, more than $28 million.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 31, according to ISW. Second night of drones on Moscow. An important bridge in occupied Crimea looks blown.

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Operational Aspects in Crimea, Russia and other areas

Drones appeared to again strike Moscow, including an office tower in the “Moscow City” precinct, according to Russian media outlets.

Local outlets reported traffic chaos in the vicinity of the apparent drone strikes: “Moscow taxi drivers are seeing a surge in orders from Moscow City and the western part of the city in general after the UAV attack,” ASTRA reported.

A leading pro-Russian milblogger complained about the social and military impact of Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on his Telegram channel: “Calling people and ‘guaranteeing their protection’ in the reach of strike UAVs, PrSM and Storm Shadow missiles, it's just too much!!! We in Moscow cancel many events because we cannot be sure about safety… The only place where you can conditionally provide people with security in Zaporozhzhia is a well-buried nuclear bunker, but not a military training ground.”

Imagery posted on July 30 and 31 visually confirms damage to the Chonhar Bridge following a Ukrainian strike on July 29, ISW stated.

About the Chonhar Bridge, a leading pro-Russian milblogger said: “Such attacks are aimed at cutting off the supply of the Russian Armed Forces from Crimea against the backdrop of the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhzhia and preparations for a landing in the Kherson region.”

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An evacuation was announced at the railway station near the Kerch Bridge, according to a Russian Telegram channel. “Vehicle traffic on the Crimean Bridge is temporarily blocked. Those who are on the bridge and in the observation area are asked to remain calm and follow the instructions of the traffic safety officers,” the message read.

Kharkiv was hit by Russian forces with a Shahed drone strike on two civilian buildings, injuring one person, according to local officials.

According to a leading pro-Russian milblogger, Ukrainian forces are regularly conducting raids and assaults along the Dnipro River and its islands around Kherson. “A very unpleasant situation is developing near the Antonivsky bridge, where Ukrainian formations not only hold a bridgehead, but also try to move deep into the territory on the left bank of the Dnipro,” Rybar said on Telegram. “The problem of the presence of the enemy on the left bank of the Dnipro has not gone away: the attacks do not seem to pose a serious threat, but because of their systematic nature, they are dangerous in the future.”

A pro-Russian source said that “in the Luhansk axis, Russian troops have again become more active in the area of Bilohorivka. With the support of artillery, they tried to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from the southeast.”

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General Developments

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhzhia regional border area, and in the western Zaporizhzhia region.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said more than 170 firefights had taken place in the last week.

Malyar also reported that, over the past week, Ukrainian forces liberated an additional 2 square kilometers of territory around Bakhmut and 12.6 square kilometers in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhzhia regional border area (aka, “Melitopol axis”) and the western Zaporizhzhia region (aka, “Berdyansk axis”).

A video appeared online depicting a Ukrainian column of Swedish CV90s and Strv 122s that also included a pair of Polish-made Rosomak Wolverines. If confirmed, this is the first appearance of a Wolverine in Ukraine, three months after the Polish government announced it would provide the Ukrainian government with 200 of the 25-ton, eight-wheel infantry fighting vehicles.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the Turkish company Baykar Makina agreed on the construction of a service center for the repair and maintenance of unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine, UkrInform reported.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

Ukrainian servicemen continue to advance toward even though the Russians have an advantage in artillery and aviation, according to the former spokesperson of the General Staff of the AFU, Vladyslav Seleznyov. He says that the situation has stabilized in the northern part of Bakhmut, and fighting continues in the Klishchiivka and Andriivka areas. “There are difficult weather conditions there now... The soil becomes soggy in such conditions; it is extremely difficult to advance on tracked armored vehicles. However, even in such conditions, the Ukrainian army continues to move forward, albeit not hastily,” said the commentator.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

Infographic of the Day

President Zelensky’s Message

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