ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The details of the ceasefire agreements on energy strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea that US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials reached on March 24 and 25 remain unclear.
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations of strikes and ceasefire violations, although the ceasefire terms remain unclear.
• Russian officials explicitly rejected US President Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that the United States could be involved in operating the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• The European Union (EU) will likely maintain sanctions on Russia despite Russian demands for Western sanctions relief as preconditions for a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine in the Black Sea.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Toretsk.
• Russia continues to reorganize drone detachments into new units, likely as part of an ongoing effort to establish the Russian Unmanned Systems Force (USF).

Authors: Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel.

See the original here.