Major Russian Offensive Widely Predicted by Ukrainian Politicians, Soldiers

Russia is uninterested in a long-term peace and is planning to launch a major ground offensive with the objective of defeating Ukraine in six to nine months, military and civilian sources in and outside Ukraine are saying.

The Kremlin’s intent is to drag out peace talks pushed by the US and to use Washington as a lever to wring concessions out of Ukraine, which will be weakened and less able to resist Russia’s next aggression, they said.

Almost all Ukrainian observers were predicting the main Russian blow would fall on Ukraine’s Donetsk region in the eastern part of the country. The Russian assault will be powerful but Ukrainian troops know their opponent and are preparing to defend their ground, sources agreed. 

Yegor Firsov, a former parliamentarian currently serving with a combat brigade, in “X” comments on March 28, said that the overall Russian objective will be to place unrelenting pressure on Kyiv’s forces so as dictate a peace that not only leaves Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions fully under Russian control, but forces Kyiv and the world to accept the conquest.

“I think they are forming another group of [assault] troops for the next wave of attack. They are deliberately dragging out the negotiations, and will attack again and again – hoping that we will give in. And they will be able to put pressure on us during the negotiations when we are in a disadvantageous position,” Firsov said. “I think that Putin will try to find these weak points of ours for a considerable period of time. In short, all I want to say: There is no peace at the front. There is no calm. It is impossible to relax.”

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Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov in a March 24 review of Russian army capacity and probable intentions said that evidence was strong that the Kremlin is concentrating troops across the front but particularly in the Donbas sector, and that Russia’s senior command hopes to wear down and eventually destroy Ukrainian resistance in months of relentless attacks.

“There are systemic signs of the Russian command preparing for another offensive in Donbas,” Butusov said. “The enemy continues to prepare for the offensive, is increasing strikes on some sections of the front and without any doubt whether the negotiations are successful or not, it is obvious that Putin will attack in the near future to raise the stakes. In order to, more than anything else, show that it is he who can dictate the terms of a truce or peace.”

Butusov said the ultimate Kremlin objective is not an advantageous peace, but the elimination of Ukraine as an independent state.

“Putin’s main goal is the destruction of Ukraine. There is no desire for a [tactical] breakthrough somewhere. Putin does not accept Ukraine itself, the existence of Ukraine,” Butusov said. “Putin has no local goals. The main goal is the liquidation of Ukraine, and the threat is very serious.”

Views varied on the precise timing of the big Russian offensive in the Donbas sector and what supporting attacks might precede it. Roman Kostenko, a legislator and in past years field military commander, on March 29 told the UNIAN news agency that the Kremlin still needs time to assemble troops and materiel.

“In the near term, in the next few months, can Russia do that? No. They don’t have the resources to do that. They’re getting ready. They’re assembling reserves, they’re creating new units there, in Russia. I think they can’t be ready before, well, the end of summer. At the rate that they’re preparing. They’re putting together new units, new formations. To have that ready in one month – for sure no way,” Kostenko said.

“When they attack, they won’t be able to attack all across an 800-kilometer front, that’s simply unrealistic,” Kostenko added.

Volodymyr Fokin, commander of the 1st Battalion 3rd Assault Brigade, in an April 1 interview with Novyny Live television, said: “Based on my information the Russian Federation is indeed preparing to launch an offensive in April. There are units that are in the Russian rear areas that are getting ready to attack in our sector. This is more or less two or three divisions. They have reserves. But they have decent manpower and they have been in training areas for more than a month. The possibility of an offensive in our sector [vicinity of Lyman, Donetsk region] is real and we are preparing for it.”

Maj. Valery Prozapas, in March 27 comments to the Espresso TV channel, said that local intelligence has observed Russian preparations for new waves of assaults in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia sectors. Along with capturing Ukraine’s Donbas region, another main objective of Russia’s 2025 offensive will be to complete Kremlin takeover of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastal regions, with the ultimate objective of taking over Ukraine’s biggest port and third-largest city Odesa, he said.

“The Russians are preparing bridgeheads for an offensive, including on Zaporizhzhia. This must be clearly understood. Zaporizhzhia is one of the strategic cities for them, although, of course, it is not as high a priority as the Odesa direction,” Prozapas said.

The Kremlin is almost certain to use tested tactics of heavy bombardment and massed glider bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions, followed up by armored and foot assaults aiming to overwhelm survivors, Ukrainian observers said.

Assaulting troops typically pass through a lethal gauntlet of Ukrainian artillery, mortars and above all FPV kamikaze drone swarms that almost always inflict heavy casualties and sometimes wipe out entire Russian units. 

Kyrylo Sazonov, an officer and long-time blogger wrote in an April 1 Telegram post from a hospital bed: “In March 2025, Russian troops occupied 133 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. This is the lowest figure in the last 9 months… How much longer can the occupier maintain this pace?… And even if they maintain this pace, they will need about 10 years to occupy the Donetsk region. Here’s the spoiler: In reality, there will be no Russian victory. Ukraine’s Donetsk region is beyond their capacity.”

Ukrainian frontline soldiers said units are training hard for close-in combat, soldiers said.

“We are improving our fortifications, preparing back up positions, we are training our people in combat skills, and we are practicing coordination with other units and their [support] weapons systems,” battalion commander Fokin said. “Our brigade is doing everything possible to prepare for a larger offensive by the Russians in its zone of responsibility.”

“We have a huge number of tasks. Battle first aid, camouflage, basic marksmanship. We are going through absolutely all our battle drills. We are practicing assaults of fortifications,” an officer with call sign Texas told Channel 5 television in a March 27 broadcast from the northern Kharkiv sector.

“It’s absolutely necessary. We have to maintain those skills and sharpen them. There is no time to relax. This isn’t our first year of war, fighting against that… ‘regime’ [the Russian Federation]. I’m not sure what the best way to call them [Russia’s military] is. But there’s no way to trust them,” he said. 

“They want to advance,” Prozapas said. “But this does not mean that they will be able to do what they want.”