The Biden Administration’s strategy of “just enough” for Ukraine – i.e., not enough to win – is now being adopted in a similar form by Europe. Kyiv is burning, yet again. On Friday evening into the early hours of Saturday, Russia unleashed a massive drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital.
“Just enough” is not only a losing strategy. It is also immoral and leading to further senseless Ukrainian civilian deaths.
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
While Russia has mobilized its economy to win the war, Europe continues to provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine in a piece-meal fashion, without a plan to defeat Russia. It’s about yet more “just enough” and legal solutions – condemnations and sanctions – to a kinetic war.
This least intrusive approach to Russia is not working; rather, it is having the opposite effect – instilling confidence within the Kremlin. European leaders are fearful of direct engagement with Russian forces for fear of potentially triggering World War III. Moscow does not seem to have that problem.
As the saying goes: “If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem,” and US President Donald Trump has now become part of the problem, telling reporters on Monday after his phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin – “This isn’t my war.”
Zelensky Says Putin Rejected G7 Peace Talks Offer
According to one European official, the president “simply doesn’t want to take sides.” And that is music to Putin’s ears.
The ball is now clearly in Europe’s court. Without US support, Putin is confident he can finally accomplish what he set out to do with his so-called “special military operation.”
As former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated on CBS News’ Face the Nation: “My own view, having dealt with him and having spent most of my life working on Russia and the Soviet Union, is Putin feels that he has a destiny to recreate the Russian Empire… And as my old mentor, Zbigniew Brzezinski once said, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.”
This is bigger than Ukraine though – it is just the tip of the iceberg – and the sooner Europe comes to that conclusion the better.
Alarming sound bites from Russian officials
Below are some prominent examples of what the Russian officials are saying out loud:
- Russian presidential advisor Anton Kobyakov: “The Soviet Union continues to exist in a legal sense … the USSR remains legally intact.”
- Defense Committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation member Viktor Sobolev: “The complete solution to the goals of the special military operation is the creation of a single union state – Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Restoration of the ‘Russian world’ within its immediate borders.”
- Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev: Russian demands might include the “complete and unconditional surrender of the former ‘Ukraine’ as represented by the neo-Nazi clique in Kiev.”
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: “Russia will accept nothing less than total victory over Ukraine.”
- Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky: “Russia is prepared to fight forever.”
And then Trump himself, telling European leaders that “Putin isn’t ready to end the war in Ukraine because he thinks he is winning.” Trump’s comments were later substantiated by Lavrov, who stated that Moscow has no interest in negotiating or agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, proclaiming: “We have already been through this and don’t want it anymore.”
Playing into Putin’s hands
Despite sustaining nearly one million casualties – 977,650 to date – Putin believes he holds a winning hand. And now that Trump has essentially punted the problem to Europe, telling President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders after his call with Putin that “Russia and Ukraine would have to find a solution to the war themselves” – he may.
Ukraine can still defeat Russia, but Europe needs to find its Winston Churchill tout de suite. Images of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk seated around a table waiting on a Trump phone call does not instill fear in Putin.
Trump’s actions give Putin exactly what he wants – separation between the US and NATO – without firing a shot. The president’s pursuit of a deal with Russia has surpassed his willingness to support Ukraine and our NATO allies. He said just that in his X post after his phone call with Putin: “Russia wants to do large-scale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth.” Trump seems willing to sit it out until the Kremlin prevails in the absence of a committed European response – then “do large-scale TRADE” with Russia.
With that said, Ukraine may need to hitch their horse to a different trailer, possibly withdrawing from the minerals deal it signed with the White House in April in favor of the EU.
Europe does not have time to debate the issue. Post Ukraine, there has been no shortage of predictions concerning timelines and intentions for follow-on Russian operations against NATO.
Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev has assumed command of Russian ground forces. His comments from July 2023 about Ukraine being a “stepping stone” should generate a sense of urgency for Europe.
Last week, satellite imagery revealed that Russian troops were “massing” along the border with Finland.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service believes Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years. German security officials believe the Kremlin “is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warns that “Russia could be ready to attack Europe by the end of the decade if Ukraine is forced to surrender.”
And now the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that Moscow could pose “a significant military challenge to NATO allies, particularly the Baltic states, as early as 2027.” Merz announced the deployment of Germany’s 45th tank brigade to Lithuania shortly afterwards.
NATO’s best course of action is to arm Ukraine now to defeat Russia on home turf, rather than prepare for a broader Russian invasion. The EU’s €850 billion, four-year Readiness 2030 program may be too late.
Europe needs a plan – then the intestinal fortitude to execute it. In the words of Morgan Freeman’s character, Ellis Boyd ‘Red’ Redding, in “The Shawshank Redemption,” Europe needs to “Get busy living, or get busy dying.”
The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
