ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The West has failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely.
• Putin’s theory of victory is predicated on critical assumptions about Ukraine’s capabilities and continued Western support for Ukraine – conditions that the West can still change.
• Putin continued Russia’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western provisions of military aid to Ukraine and NATO rearmament but appears to be adapting this campaign for different audiences.
• Putin explicitly stated that he will not sign a peace agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Putin used his meeting with international journalists to reinject longstanding Kremlin rhetorical lines into the media space, as ISW previously forecasted.
• Russian officials appear to be struggling to posture Russia’s economic strength amid increasing signs of a slowing Russian economy.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted the fifth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance the June 2 Istanbul agreements, amid reports that Russia artificially inflated the number of bodies released to Ukraine in previous killed in action (KIA) exchanges.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, Jessica Sobieski, and Kateryna Stepanenko with Nate Trotter.

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