• In October 2025 Russia launched approximately 5,300 one way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) at targets across Ukraine, a moderate decrease from the 5,500 OWA UAS Russia launched in September 2025. It is highly likely that Russia’s October 2025 launch rate was moderately reduced due to worsening weather conditions. Weather-resultant lull periods were often followed by peaks during which approximately 400-650 OWA UAS were launched in a single night.
  • Russian UAS present a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defence, particularly when combined with the short range ballistic missiles also launched in significant numbers. It is almost certain that Russia aims to saturate targets including military industry and airfields to both maximise damage and increase the survivability of premier missiles.
  • Russia’s Long Range Aviation (LRA) bomber tempo also slowed in October 2025, likely linked to weather conditions and other priority tasking, specifically the culmination of Russia’s training/testing season. While four LRA strike packages were observed in October 2025, they were limited in their missile expenditure, predominantly using the unreliable AS-24 KILLJOY air launched ballistic missile instead of their premier AS-23 KODIAK air launched cruise missile. Russia’s primary target for LRA has been energy critical national infrastructure at least since the beginning of October 2025.
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