Ukraine’s October Inflation Eases Despite NBU Warning of Potential Rise

Annual inflation in Ukraine fell to 10.9% in October, compared with the same month last year, while core inflation decreased to 10.2%.

Despite this decline, Ukraine remains cautious about whether inflation will slow toward the central bank’s target of 5%, as ongoing attacks on the energy sector and the prolonged war continue to pose risks for higher prices, threatening economic stability.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept its key interest rate at 15.5%, while Governor Andriy Pyshny noted that inflationary pressures had strengthened due to strikes on the energy infrastructure and higher budget spending.

Consumer inflation in Ukraine – October 2025

Monthly consumer inflation rose to 0.9% in October, up from 0.3% in September, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Despite this monthly uptick, the annual consumer price index (CPI) shows an overall decrease from 11.9% in September.

Core inflation in Ukraine – October 2025

Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices, slowed by 0.8% month-over-month. Year-over-year, core inflation stood at 10.2%, down from 11% in October 2024.

Monthly comparisons indicate a continued slowdown, with core inflation falling from 1.3% in September to 0.6% in October, suggesting a more optimistic trend.

Food prices in Ukraine – October 2025

Fruits and vegetables – major contributors to inflation alongside energy costs and labor shortages – have started to accelerate again.

Food, vegetables, and non-alcoholic beverages rose 1.6% month-over-month and 15.6% year-over-year. The largest increases were recorded for eggs (up 11.0%) and vegetables (up 10.4%).

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Meat prices continue to rise, with increases of 1.0-7.1% for pork fat, milk, fish, sunflower oil, bread, butter, meat products, and cheese, driven by higher production costs and a decline in livestock numbers, according to the NBU.

Meanwhile, prices for fruits, sugar, rice, and pasta fell by 0.2-2.6%, while alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 1.5%, mainly due to a 2.2% rise in tobacco costs.

Utilities, services, and clothes in Ukraine – October 2025

• Telecommunications services decreased slightly by 0.1%.
• Recreation and culture rose by 0.1%, education by 0.2%, restaurants and hotels by 0.9%, and other goods and services by 0.7%.
• Transport prices edged up 0.1%, driven by a 0.6% rise in road passenger transport, while railway fares fell 5.0%.
• Clothing and footwear increased by 0.5%, including 0.7% for clothing and 0.1% for footwear.
• Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose 0.2%, mainly due to a 1.1% increase in waste collection and 0.3% rise in housing maintenance (these are administratively regulated prices that the government keeps below market levels).
• Household goods, appliances, and home maintenance increased 0.7%.
• Healthcare fell 0.1%, reflecting a 0.5% decrease in pharmaceutical goods, though outpatient services rose 1.1%.

Inflation has started to decelerate from its 15.9% peak in May, helped by higher supplies from the new harvest. However, labor shortages due to migration continue to exert pressure on prices.

Although last year’s destruction of the energy grid caused a spike in 2024, electricity and gas prices have remained stable both year-over-year and month-over-month as of August 2025.