ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin is setting information conditions to reject any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine by threatening Europe.
• The Kremlin preemptively rejected the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian government that it does not directly control in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent statements that he is ready to hold elections before the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin once again rejected the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and signaled Russia’s commitment to destroying the Ukrainian power grid in the winter months.
• Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not yet seized Pokrovsk, but the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but will take more time and suffer more casualties to do so.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in the Black Sea region with unmanned surface vehicles (USV) on December 10.
• Russia may be setting conditions to threaten Odesa Oblast from Russian-occupied Transnistria in an effort to fix Ukrainian forces in southwestern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Oleksandrivka.

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