ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Preliminary unconfirmed reports suggested that Russian forces may have conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8, but Ukrainian officials have not yet confirmed these reports.
• The Kremlin again explicitly rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing with Ukraine as part of a peace agreement.
• The owner of the Russian-flagged Bella-1 oil tanker that the US Coast Guard seized on January 7 is reportedly affiliated with Russian efforts to evade sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector.
• Russia appears to be attempting to distance itself from the Bella-1 oil tanker even as it seeks to protect other likely shadow fleet vessels.
• The Russian military command reportedly continues to create new military units and formations but will likely struggle to staff them to their full doctrinal end strength.
• The United Kingdom provided Ukraine with air defense systems amidst Russia’s escalating long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast.

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