- The average daily Russian casualty rate during January 2026 was 1,023 according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting, a moderate decrease from 1,130 in December 2025. This follows four consecutive monthly increases in the average daily casualty rate from August 2025 to December 2025.
- Russia has likely sustained approximately 1,245,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and approximately 40,000 so far in 2026.
- Russian Ground Forces continue to attack along multiple areas of the frontline. Territorial gains in January 2026 are likely lower than November 2025 and December 2025, which is consistent with in-year trends.
- The most likely scenario for the next six months is a continuation of attritional warfare. Russian advances will remain primarily tactical, mostly in areas less well-defended by Ukrainian forces.
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