The Thickening Oil Crisis – Ukraine Latest, April 6

The oil crisis is only getting worse – and it might just be the beginning.

Iran likely knows its best leverage is hitting the US where it hurts. Apart from closing the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has also been striking energy facilities across the Gulf. US President Donald Trump has threatened to decimate Iran’s infrastructure if it does not reopen the Strait by Tuesday. But despite some reports of ceasefire proposals, it remains unclear whether Tehran is willing to give up one of its strongest – if not the only – points of leverage.

Iran does not appear to be the only one exploiting the crisis. With global supplies strained, explosives were also found near the Serbia-Hungary pipeline. Serbia has been quick to rule out Kyiv’s involvement. But with Hungary’s election approaching and fears of manipulation persisting, the incident could still sway the vote – or at least be staged to do so.

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Russian Region Deploys Police at Gas Stations As Fuel Crisis Deepens

Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out about a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity.

Kyiv is also hitting it where it hurts. A week-long campaign targeting Russia’s Baltic ports has reportedly cost Moscow around $1 billion in oil revenue, while a recent strike also crippled one of Russia’s main Black Sea terminals. However, amid the crisis, Kyrylo Budanov – Ukraine’s presidential aide and former intelligence chief – said “some allies” have asked Kyiv not to hit Russian oil refineries, without naming them.

In potentially positive developments, President Volodymyr Zelensky made a rare visit to Syria, days after the country’s new president said Russian bases there would be converted into training facilities. Ukrainian arms maker Fire Point – known for the Flamingo cruise missiles – also announced plans to develop a Patriot-style air defense alternative by 2027.

Meanwhile, the US Navy is reportedly seeking funding for 405 Patriot missiles in its 2027 fiscal budget, with the missiles having so far been ground-launched. On the subject of Patriots, Zelensky has once again voiced concerns that supplies could be diverted if the Iran war drags on. Short-term relief is arriving via Sweden’s Tridon Mk2, designed to counter Shahed drones, but Ukraine still needs to plug the gap against high-speed missile threats.

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