Zelensky Says Russia Losing Battlefield Initiative but Warns Front Can Shift ‘Each Day’

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces are losing momentum on the battlefield, citing sustained casualties and a slowdown in offensive operations – a trend also reflected in independent battlefield assessments.

“We can say that they are losing the initiative,” Zelensky said in an interview with The Guardian. “Each day, day by day, they’re losing this.”

He said Ukraine’s position has improved over recent months but cautioned against overconfidence.

“It looks really optimistic for us,” he said, “but the situation on the battlefield can change each day.”

Zelensky’s assessment aligns with recent analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which reported that Russian forces made only minimal territorial gains in recent months, with advances dropping sharply compared to 2025 levels.

According to ISW-linked assessments and aggregated battlefield data, Russian forces in May 2026 captured only around 14-82 square kilometers (5-32 square miles), depending on methodology, marking one of the slowest monthly advances since the early stages of the war.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have not only held defensive lines but in some sectors regained ground. Ukrainian military leadership said Kyiv recaptured over 600 square kilometers (232 square miles) in 2026, with net gains exceeding losses in recent months.

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A separate ISW assessment published in late May concluded that Ukrainian counterattacks and drone-driven strike campaigns are “creating cascading operational effects” that are disrupting Russia’s ability to sustain offensive operations across multiple sectors.

The Institute has also noted a broader structural slowdown in Russian advances, reporting a sustained decline in territorial gains since late 2025 and, in some months, even net Russian losses when accounting for battlefield control shifts.

Zelensky echoed that assessment, arguing that Russia is increasingly paying a heavy price in manpower.

“They lose a lot of people,” he said during the interview, citing what he described as daily losses of more than 1,000 killed and wounded.

“They are not winning the war,” he added.

Despite the slowdown in Russian advances, Zelensky stressed that the battlefield remains volatile and that Moscow retains offensive capacity.

“We don’t see their optimism from their side during the next months,” he said. “But we really hope that we can sit, speak, and stop this war.”