Russia Needs 70,000 Troops to Launch New Offensive From Belarus, Ukrainian Commander Says

Russia would need to assemble roughly 70,000 troops to launch a major offensive against Ukraine from Belarus, a task Ukrainian forces are actively trying to prevent, National Guard Commander Maj. Gen. Oleksandr Pivnenko said.

In an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, Pivnenko described the threat from Belarus as real but said Moscow currently faces challenges generating the forces required for such an operation.

“The enemy’s main task is to stretch our forces so they can move deeper into our territory more quickly,” Pivnenko said.

“But that also requires forces — finding 70,000 servicemen capable of carrying out such actions. Let them try. We will do our best to make sure they don’t find them.”

Pivnenko noted that Russia’s Senezh special operations center is already operating near the border and active on the Chernihiv axis.

He suggested Moscow may struggle to organize a new northern campaign while facing difficulties elsewhere on the front.

“I’m not sure they can organize themselves so quickly because Russia has certain problems in the Pokrovsk direction, we are destroying a lot of their infantry there,” he said.

The commander said National Guard units continue to participate in border security operations alongside other elements of Ukraine’s Defense Forces and described the current situation along the northern frontier as stable.

According to Pivnenko, Ukraine has placed particular emphasis on drone surveillance and maintains continuous aerial monitoring of border areas. He explained:

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“If there are concerns that the enemy plans to move in through the north of our country, the Chernihiv or Chornobyl sectors, we are ready for it.

“The events of 2022 will not be repeated here.”

Pivnenko also dismissed the likelihood of a military threat emerging from Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region. Pivnenko said:

“I do not believe in such a scenario,. I would not advise either Belarus or Transnistria to enter this war. We already have the capabilities to make them completely abandon such plans.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in May that Russia was making new attempts to draw Belarus more deeply into the war. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky later described the possibility of offensive actions from Belarusian territory as “entirely real.”

Last week President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was giving Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko one week to withdraw Russian military equipment from areas near Ukraine’s border, warning that Ukrainian forces would act if Minsk failed to do so.

Zelensky said Lukashenko’s repeated claims that he does not want Belarus drawn into the war contradict the role Belarus continues to play in supporting Russia’s military campaign. Zelensky said:

“When Mr. Lukashenko says he does not want to be drawn into the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people. It is not him personally who may be drawn into the war. The entire country could be dragged into it by Russia.”

Zelensky recalled that Russian missiles were launched from Belarusian territory during the opening stages of Moscow’s full-scale invasion.

“From the first days of this war, missiles were flying from Belarus, killing children and adults,” Zelensky said.