Sweden Warns Russia Will Remain Long-Term Threat Beyond Putin’s Rule

Russia will likely remain a threat to its neighbors well beyond the end of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s presidency, according to Sweden’s military intelligence chief, Thomas Nilsson.

Aboard a Swedish military vessel moored at the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Nilsson said Stockholm does not view Moscow’s confrontation with the West as temporary.

“We don’t see this crisis as a temporary one; Russia has chosen its path, and there is no way back,” he said. “We are in a strategic confrontation that is deep, structural and enduring – we can’t wish that away,” he added, as reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Putin, who has ruled Russia for more than 26 years, is expected to remain eligible for another presidential term, potentially extending his rule into the 2030s.

He has not indicated whether he intends to step down and has shown no signs of preparing a successor.

Nilsson added that Russia’s economy continues to show signs of strain after years of war, adding that officials are manipulating statistics to downplay the impact on growth and inflation.

He also pointed to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which have contributed to fuel shortages and long queues at gas stations.

“Don’t expect any dramatic change”

Despite these pressures, he said Sweden does not currently see indications of regime instability in Moscow.

“Political opposition has effectively been eliminated – through exile, imprisonment, or, in the worst cases, assassination,” Nilsson said. “There is no one capable of channeling public dissatisfaction into a political alternative,” he added.

Other Topics of Interest

Putin-Linked Superyacht Sails Through Danish Waters Under Russian Naval Escort

A Russian destroyer and a patrol ship are escorting the 80-meter yacht, while a Danish patrol vessel, P521 Freja, is also monitoring the convoy.

While there is some public support for the war, it is often rooted less in approval of the conflict itself, and more in backing for Russia’s broader great-power ambitions.

“We don’t expect any dramatic change,” Nilsson said.

He also warned that Russia is continuing to expand military infrastructure near NATO’s eastern border, including areas close to the Baltic and Nordic regions.

While Moscow says such developments are defensive, Swedish intelligence believes they may form part of longer-term planning to build larger force structures “from northern Finland all the way down.”

He added, however, that most of these plans remain unimplemented as Russia continues to prioritize the war in Ukraine.

“Our assessment is that once Russia regains the necessary resources and capacity, it will try to carry out these plans,” Nilsson said.

Previous warnings from Stockholm

In mid-July, Sweden’s parliamentary defense commission warned that Russia could seek to test NATO’s unity and commitment to collective defense through limited military action in the near future.

Swedish Chief of Defense Michael Claesson previously asserted that Moscow could test NATO’s resolve by seizing one of the thousand islands in the Baltics.

According to Bloomberg, Moscow may act if it sees favorable political conditions, even if traditional military requirements for launching an attack are not fully met.

Earlier assessments suggested Russia would need several years after the war in Ukraine to rebuild its military capabilities.

However, Sweden’s military intelligence service recently concluded that Moscow already has the capacity to carry out a limited armed attack outside Ukraine.

Its report says that significant parts of Russia’s military have remained largely unaffected by the war, including its air and naval forces, long-range strike capabilities, and hybrid warfare assets.

The commission also said Russia continues to expand its military presence, including by forming new units in the Leningrad Military District and building up forces on the Kola Peninsula and in the Arctic.