Russia could seek to test NATO’s unity and commitment to collective defense through limited military action in the near future, according to a report published by Sweden’s parliamentary defense commission.
According to Bloomberg on Friday, Moscow may choose to act if it believes political conditions are favorable, even if traditional military requirements for launching an attack have not been fully met.
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“Such actions could occur if Russia assesses that political conditions are favorable,” the report said.
Sweden revises assessment of Russian capabilities
Previous estimates suggested Russia would require several years after the end of its war against Ukraine to rebuild its military capabilities.
However, Sweden’s military intelligence service recently concluded that Moscow already has the capacity to conduct a limited armed attack outside of Ukraine.
Per the report, significant elements of Russia’s armed forces have remained largely unaffected by the war, including its air and naval forces, long-range strike capabilities, and hybrid warfare assets.
The commission noted that Russia continues to expand its military presence, including through the formation of new units in the Leningrad Military District and an ongoing military buildup on the Kola Peninsula and in the Arctic.
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Sweden joined NATO in 2024 alongside neighboring Finland after both countries abandoned decades of military non-alignment following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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Under NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, an attack against one member is considered an attack against all allies.
Alongside its warning about Russia, the Swedish defense commission highlighted increasing uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy and security.
According to the report, the current US administration’s approach is increasingly characterized by “unpredictability, rapid shifts, transactionalism, harsher rhetoric, and a greater willingness to use military force unilaterally.”
The commission said these changes have added to security concerns in Europe as governments seek to strengthen their own defense capabilities while continuing support for Ukraine.
Additionally, NATO member states are also negotiating a new €70 billion ($81 billion) military aid package for Ukraine, which is expected to be formally announced during the upcoming Alliance summit in Ankara this July.
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