Trump Now Sees Ukraine as the Winner and Russia as the Loser, Former US Ambassador Says

Former White House National Security Council staffer Matthew Bryza believes President Donald Trump has moved closer to Ukraine because he increasingly views Kyiv as the side gaining strategic momentum and Russia as the likely loser in its own war.

In an interview with Kyiv Post, Bryza described Trump’s decision to authorize licensed production of Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine as a “profound” political and strategic shift.

“I think President Trump realizes that Ukraine is most likely to be the winner and Russia the loser,” the former US ambassador argued. “Trump likes winners and doesn’t like losers.”

Trump announced at last week’s NATO summit in Ankara that Washington would allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors. The decision represents a major long-term boost for Kyiv, although establishing production facilities, transferring technology and creating supply chains could take considerable time.

The S-400 remains the price of an F-35 return

Trump declared in Ankara that he intended to lift US sanctions imposed on Turkey over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system. He also signaled that a decision on Turkey’s possible return to the F-35 fighter jet program would follow.

Neither step, however, has been fully completed.

Legal and congressional hurdles remain, while Washington continues to view the presence of the Russian system on Turkish territory as incompatible with the security requirements of the F-35 program.

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Bryza expects Ankara to seek a way to remove the S-400 from the country – whether by returning it to Russia or transferring it elsewhere.

“What does Turkey get in return for disposing of the S-400?” he asked, reframing the possible arrangement with Washington.

In his assessment, eliminating the Russian system would clear the central obstacle preventing Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program and open the way for broader defense cooperation with the US.

Trump’s personal respect for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also helping drive the rapprochement, according to the former ambassador.

‘Turkey is not afraid of Russia’

Removing the Russian S-400 platform would almost certainly anger Moscow, but Bryza does not believe Ankara is overly concerned about potential retaliation.

“Turkey is not afraid of Russia,” he maintained.

This strategic confidence was on full display when President Erdoğan officially announced Turkey’s decision to join the Patriot Under License Production (PURL) program on Wednesday during the NATO Summit in Ankara. The move serves as a concrete pivot back toward Western defense integration, signaled directly on the Black Sea frontier. [1]

The former White House NSC staffer described Russia as severely weakened by its failure to achieve the original strategic objectives behind its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow failed to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government, eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign state, or force NATO to retreat from its eastern member states, Bryza noted.

He also pointed to Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics, oil refineries, and energy infrastructure as evidence that Kyiv is successfully bringing the economic and physical costs of the war directly home to Russian society.

Turkey, in turn, has consistently supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provided extensive military-technical cooperation, including joint weapons development, all while preserving tactical diplomatic communication with Moscow and declining to join Western sanctions.

Crucially, Ankara also closed the Turkish Straits to Russian warships not permanently based in the Black Sea under the Montreux Convention – a step Bryza described as a highly meaningful, physical constraint on Moscow’s war effort. 

Turkey’s approach has therefore been carefully balanced but entirely non-neutral: it actively seeks an end to the conflict while explicitly backing Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and absolute right to defend itself.

Patriot license marks a ‘huge shift’

The most consequential Ukraine-related development at the Ankara summit was Trump’s pledge to authorize production of Patriot interceptors.

Bryza called the announcement a “huge political step in favor of Ukraine and against Russia.”

The decision represents a sharp departure from Trump’s previous pressure on Kyiv and his earlier suggestion that Ukraine lacked the leverage necessary to continue resisting Moscow.

Ukraine’s refusal to yield – combined with Russia’s failure to make decisive battlefield gains – has altered Washington’s calculations, according to the former ambassador.

But the political breakthrough should not be confused with an immediate supply of missiles.

The manufacturers of Patriot systems and PAC-3 interceptors would first need to approve technology transfers to Ukrainian or European producers. New facilities, specialized supply chains and a trained workforce would then have to be established.

“It’s not a matter of weeks or months,” Bryza cautioned. “It’s a matter of a year or years.”

Nevertheless, the authorization sends a message to Moscow that Ukraine could eventually obtain the capacity to replenish its own supply of the weapons most capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.

That prospect could influence Putin’s calculations by weakening one of Russia’s remaining advantages in the war.

If Ukraine becomes better able to protect its cities and infrastructure from ballistic attacks, Bryza believes the Kremlin will find it increasingly difficult to maintain the claim that Russia’s eventual victory is inevitable.

How durable is Trump’s support?

Trump’s warming toward Kyiv is not necessarily irreversible.

Bryza believes the shift will endure as long as Ukraine continues stopping Russian forces, developing advanced defense technology and demonstrating that it can deny Moscow its maximalist objectives.

He defined Ukrainian victory not necessarily as the immediate liberation of every occupied territory, but as preventing Russia from destroying Ukraine as an independent state.

Ukraine’s internationally recognized strength in drone development and defense innovation could also appeal to Trump’s preference for technologically advanced and militarily successful partners.

But a reversal on the battlefield could again lead the US president to pressure Ukraine rather than Russia, the former envoy warned.

“Ukraine has stopped Russia’s progress on the battlefield,” Bryza concluded. “In my estimation, it is now winning.”