Here are four key scenarios – not ranked by likelihood, but all very possible.
Scenario 1: vicious circle
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1) Trump meets Putin, falls for his gaslighting – maybe even willingly.
He pushes Ukraine to accept an unfair and humiliating deal, possibly just for a ceasefire. Ukraine refuses. Pressure builds.
We’re back to square one, with Trump blaming Ukraine again.
Scenario 2: the walkaway
Trump sees through Putin’s game.
He realizes Putin is just buying time and walks away. No deal. No mediation. Status quo.
Europe can still buy US weapons for Ukraine. Trump exits the peace stage – for now.
Scenario 3: the pressure pivot
Trump sees Putin is gaslighting – and chooses to retaliate.
New sanctions. Secondary tariffs.
This is not super-likely, given Trump’s past softness on Russia. But it’s an option that could shift the pressure.
Scenario 4: the surprise deal
Negotiations have quietly advanced. A ceasefire or some form of deal is signed in Alaska – or soon after.
Very unlikely. It wouldn’t necessarily end the war or put it on hold. But it would shift the war’s dynamics overnight.
Pre-emptive takeaway
These are just some of the possible scenarios – but the coming days will be crucial.
Europe must stand firm with Ukraine.
Ukraine shouldn’t accept a bad deal, no matter the pressure.
Anything is possible.
Watch Alaska. Watch the gaslighting. Watch the fallout.
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The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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