OPINION: Europe Must Change Ukraine Strategy Fast

Europe has got stuck in a flawed discussion about security guarantees for Ukraine. It’s great that 26 countries want to stand up for Ukraine, this discussion is misconstrued. Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk has laid out how Ukraine needs to facilitate “strategic neutralization.” Europe needs to follow suit and needs to abandon several key myths.

• The first myth is that the US under President Donald Trump remains an ally. Trump has done nothing for Ukraine, and he has voted twice with a dozen rogue states in the United Nations against condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Hopefully, Trump does not become an overt ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• A second myth is that Europe cannot do anything without the US.

• A third myth is that Europe can only offer security after the war has ended, which gives Russia license to prolong the war.

• A fourth myth is that the war is contained to Ukraine, but Russia’s subversive warfare with assassinations, arson and cyber warfare prevail in Europe.

• A fifth myth is that boots on the ground are critical, but Europe is not good at that. Ukraine has more and better soldiers, guaranteeing Europe’s security.

Russia pursues an asymmetric war that the slow West fails to see as warfare. Instead, Europe should opt for contrarian asymmetric warfare, utilizing its strengths.

• Marvelously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have defeated the Russian Black Sea navy. The Western naval powers – mainly the UK and the Netherlands – should secure this achievement, because shipping over the Black Sea is vital for Ukraine’s export. The next step should be to block all Russian oil exports over the Black Sea. Ultimately, the Russian Black Sea should be eliminated and the Black Sea demilitarized as it was from the Crimean War in 1856 until 1878.
• The Baltic Sea should be given similar treatment. Half of all Russian oil exports pass through the Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits, much of it on sanctioned Russian shadow tankers. The West can and should close the Danish Straits to the Russian shadow fleet. These two measures would deprive Russia of one-third of its export revenues, about $130 billion. That will mean Putin can no longer afford his war in Ukraine.
  
  
• The third measure is obvious: Seize the $200 billion of Russian Central Bank assets that are frozen in the Euroclear Bank in Belgium and give these funds to Ukraine. After all the international crimes Russia has committed, it cannot win any case in any international court. Still, the EU should give Euroclear Bank and Belgium full legal protection. These funds should primarily be used for buying arms for Ukraine in Ukraine.
  
  
• Cut off all banks in Russia, including the few remaining Western banks, from the bank messaging system SWIFT.
  
  
• The EU has sanctioned one product group after the other, which is an ineffective technique and causes unnecessary quibbles. Instead, Europe should impose a high tariff, for example 50 percent, on all imports of Russian origin.
  
  
• Introduce a no-fly zone over half of Ukraine! Remarkably, Russia has never attained air supremacy in Ukraine, while Israel did so instantaneously over Iran, showing how weak Russia’s air force and air defenses are. Ukraine has taken out much of Russia’s air force and even more of its air defense. Strong NATO air assets are present in Poland and Romania. It is time for Europeans to put down their foot. Both Poland and Romania have repeatedly been hit by Russian rockets, so they are justified to stand up to Russia. After that no-fly zone has become effective, it can be gradually expanded to the whole of Ukraine and then the war will be won without European boots on the ground.
  
  
• For years, the West has passively accepted that Russia has pursued a cyber war against many Western countries and taken out GPS for air traffic. Europe had better respond with a full-fledged cyber war against Russia, as Ukraine has done repeatedly. Russian GPS disturbances must no longer be accepted.
  
  
• Pathetically, some Russian saboteurs and spies have been acquitted in European courts because their crimes had not been legislated. All European countries should adopt as severe legislation for Russian saboteurs and assassins as Estonia has done and make sure to enforce such laws.
  
  
• In January 1943, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill met in Casablanca and agreed never to negotiated with Adolf Hitler but insist on his unconditional capitulation. Similarly, European leaders must stay true to their current line not to negotiate with Putin. Angela Merkel and Donald Trump have illustrated how not only meaningless but harmful it is to negotiate with Putin. Europeans must not repeat their mistakes.
  
  
• Trump has given up on the prior US demand on Ukraine’s territorial integrity to accommodate his friend Putin. Fortunately, Europe holds firm, as it must. Russia pursues a colonial war in Ukraine. After World War II, virtually all colonial wars have ended in the colonial power withdrawing fully. The war in Ukraine ends when Russia feels forced to withdraw from all Ukrainian territories. This is a war of attrition and the Russian people have little beef in this war, but many corpses.

What will happen in Russia when it loses its war in Ukraine? Putin will lose power (don’t ask me how) and his autocratic, kleptocratic and imperialist regime will collapse. Once again, power will lie in the street, and nobody can plausibly predict who will be able to pick it up, but that is what we should aim for. No plausible option for Russia and the world is worse than Putin. The only logical end to this war is the demise of Putin.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.