As Ukrainian drone forces continue their offensive against infrastructure and transport targets in Crimea, the Russians must adapt. In the meantime, the symbolism of isolating the Kremlin Empire’s crown jewel on the Black Sea is having a psychological ripple effect in Moscow.
Dr. Andreas Umland of the newly founded European Policy Institute in Kyiv (EPIK) offers insights to German newspaper Bild into the ongoing attempt by the Ukrainian military to isolate occupied Crimea logistically.
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Ukrainian attacks on fuel depots and refineries – even deep inside Russia – have dominated the news in recent weeks. How significant is the damage to the Russian (war) economy?
The extent of the damage was difficult to assess over several months. Over the past two weeks, however, it has become clear that the destruction of oil processing and storage infrastructure has been more effective than earlier assumed. Gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and other refined products are now only available at higher prices and in limited quantities. As a result, all aspects of Russian economic and social life are under pressure. The shortage appears to be most severe in occupied Crimea.
Over the weekend, Ukraine concentrated its attacks on Crimea, which is occupied in violation of international law – what would it mean for Russia if the peninsula were completely cut off from occupied Ukraine? Both ideologically and militarily.
Ukraine Targets Crimean Supply Lines – Reactions
Russia’s attack on Ukraine began in February 2014 with the occupation of Crimea and its annexation one month later. The Russian attack may now be collapsing due to Crimea’s increasing logistical isolation from Russia. What once appeared to be Russia’s most secure piece of war booty is becoming the Kremlin’s greatest liability, as the Russian army is unable to secure the peninsula’s supply routes via land, air and sea.
This is an enormous embarrassment for Putin and calls into question the purpose of the entire so-called “special military operation” starting in 2022.
The war has transformed from a kind of video game into a daily reality for millions of Russians.
What is the current situation on the front lines – is Russia also suffering losses there?
Russia’s personnel losses on the front lines are currently higher than the influx of new recruits. Russia continues to carry out so-called “meat wave” attacks into the “death zone” that Ukraine has created on the front lines with its various drones. While there are minor front-line movements in one direction or another, these are of little military significance. The war is now focused on the battle between long-range drones and missiles and the respective air defense systems over the cities and industrial facilities of Ukraine and Russia.
There are videos showing Russians – both in Moscow and on vacation in Crimea – who appear to be in despair because the war has suddenly entered their everyday lives. How significant do you estimate the psychological impact of the Ukrainian attacks to be on the Russian population and the powerful men in the Kremlin?
In recent weeks, the role of the war in Russian society has fundamentally changed. To be sure, the relative suffering of ordinary Russians due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure is still far from the multiple horror and casualties resulting from the years of Russian terrorist bombardment of Ukrainian cities and villages. However, for a large part of the Russian population, the war is now clearly visible for the first time, and its economic impact, at the very least, is clearly becoming felt. The war has transformed from a kind of video game into a daily reality for millions of Russians.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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