ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

 Key Takeaways

• Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his crackdown against anti-war dissent and misappropriation of military assets within Russia.
• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely attempting to set informational conditions for the Wagner Group’s culmination around Bakhmut.
• Russian regional authorities may be severing their connections with Prigozhin.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated that the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist goals in Ukraine.
• BBC and Russian opposition news outlet Mediazona estimated that Russian forces have suffered at least 35,000 total deaths and 157,000 total casualties.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and on the outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to erect defensive fortifications along ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Crimea.
• Conventional Russian authorities and the Wagner Group continue to invest significant resources in efforts to involve youth in the war effort and ready them mentally and physically for military service.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts russify Ukrainians in occupied territories.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See the full report here.