Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Monday, June 12

Good morning, Kyiv Post readers. Here’s your Morning Memo for June 12 to get you up to speed on events in Ukraine:

·      Top Headlines

·      Military Situation Report (Day 474)

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

Top Headlines

The settlements of Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Makarivka and Storozheve near the TO518 road in western Donetsk oblast were recaptured on Sunday by Ukrainian forces, as the initial week of the new phase of their country’s counteroffensive concluded. The three settlements are on a north-south road that runs to Mariupol which is some 125 kilometers south.

Ukrainian advances were also reported and/or verified near Bakhmut and Avdiivka in Donetsk, as well as in southwestern Zaporizhzhia. Further details on the military situation in our report below.

Russian troops fired at a boat evacuating civilians from the flooded, Russian-occupied left bank of the Kherson Region, killing three people and wounding 23.

In Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Kherson Region, drinking water to 19 settlements is at risk from the massive flood in the area caused by the Kakhovka dam breach, according to the head of Kherson Regional Military Administration.

A total of 46 settlements remain flooded, including 32 on the right bank and 14 on the left bank.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has begun an investigation into the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam, which includes a visit to the site.

Other Topics of Interest

Probable Mass ATACMS Missile Strike Hits Russian Airfield in Crimea

The Kremlin said all the US-made long-range missiles were shot down, but the claim was debunked by big fires burning for hours at Belbek airfield and official warnings of cluster munitions.

The Security Service of Ukraine released a taped conversation reportedly between two Russian military operatives discussing the Kakhovka explosion. “They (the Ukrainian military) didn't strike it. That was our sabotage group. They wanted to scare people with this dam,” said the man identified by the SBU as a Russian soldier. “It didn't go according to plan, and (they did) more than they planned for.”

Military Situation Report

Ukrainian counteroffensive activities took place, largely in the form of probing attacks, in four parts of the front: part 1) near the administrative boundary between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia; part 2) southwestern Zaporizhzhia; part 3) northern Donetsk including Bakhmut; part 4) central Donetsk including Avdiivka.

Part 1

“The settlements of Blahodatne and Makarivka were deoccupied,” said Hanna Malyar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister. The Ukrainian Volunteer Army claimed it had captured nearby Neskuchne. The Deputy Minister also claimed Ukrainian forces had recaptured Novodarivka and Storozhevo.

The claims about Blahodatne, Makarivka and Neskuchne villages along the TO518 were confirmed by Russian milbloggers who acknowledged the Ukrainian advance and the failure of Russian army attempts to counterattack. Storozhevo is located between Neskuchne and Blahodatne and, therefore, it is most likely recaptured as well. Novodarivka, 10 kilometers to the west on a separate road in eastern Zaporizhzhia Region, is unconfirmed.

Part 2

ISW reported Ukrainian advances in southwestern Zaporizhzhia including south of Orikhiv and Lobkove.

Parts 3 & 4

Ukrainian military spokespeople also claimed to have gained further ground in Bakhmut and Avdiivka which are closer to the occupied city of Donetsk and have been contested for many months.

Russian forces undertook counterattacks near the long-combatted Marinka further north in Donetsk oblast, according to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister.

Other activity

Ukrainian losses for the first week of the new phase of the counteroffensive are unknown, but media have verified the loss of at least 10 Ukrainian fighting vehicles.

Russian administrative spokespeople reported explosions in occupied Tokmak and Melitopol which are both on the strategic land bridge between occupied Crimea and Russia itself, which includes Mariupol.

There were also reports of Ukrainian partisans disabling railway lines used by the Russian army to move equipment and supplies. Near simultaneous explosions were reported on railway lines in Crimea’s Kirovske district and at Yakymivka in the Zaporizhzhia Region on Sunday.

The Russian defense ministry said that its Priazovye reconnaissance ship had been forced to fight off a swarm of boat drones 200 miles south-east of its base in Crimea on the southern fringe of the Black Sea.

Russia and Ukraine announced a prisoner swap involving around 95 prisoners from each side.

ISW

The June 11 campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) had the following key take-aways:

·      Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

·      Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Region and western Zaporizhzhia Region, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.

·      Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are transferring their most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia directions.

·      Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone strikes targeting eastern Ukrainian border areas overnight on June 10 to 11.

·      Russian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.

·      Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

·      Ukrainian forces made gains near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions and in western Zaporizhzhia Region as of June 10.

·      Russian milbloggers claimed that rain along the Zaporizhzhia Region front may slow Ukrainian operations in the coming days.

·      The Republic of Chechnya reportedly formed two new regiments – Akhmat-Russia and Akhmat-Chechnya – equipped with commercially-available Chinese armored equipment.

·      Saboteurs, reportedly including Ukrainian partisans, conducted two discrete improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against railways in occupied Kherson Region and Crimea.

General Staff Report

The update at 06:00 on June 12 (Day 474) for the last 24 hours from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reflects a surge in military activities and reports:

·      1 Russian missile attack;

·      36 Russian air raids;  

·      38 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) attacks;

·      25 firefights;

·      Russian air raids took place in locations in the following regions: Kharkiv (two); Luhansk (one); Sumy (one); Donetsk (10); and Kherson (two);

·      Russian artillery, rocket and mortar fire took place in locations in the following regions: Kharkiv (19); Sumy (four); Luhansk (four); Donetsk (31); Zaporizhzhia (10), Mykolaiv (one), and Kherson (one);

·      Ukrainian air forces undertook 6 raids against Russian positions and equipment.

·      Two Ukrainian civilians died from an artillery attack on a medical facility in Huliapole, Zaporizhzhia Region.

President Zelensky’s Message

“As of now, over 3,000 people have already been evacuated in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. But again, that is the free territory under our control. In the occupied territory, it is only possible to help people in some areas.

“Russian terrorists are doing everything to make the victims of the disaster as numerous as possible. Russian shelling continues – even at evacuation points. 

“The Russian state and the Russian leadership should bear separate, just and strict responsibility for all this.” – Volodymyr Zelensky