Daily Briefing from Ukraine

·      Top 5 Headlines

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

Top 5 Headlines

1.     Ukraine’s summer offensive reportedly made small advances in three theaters while facing stiff resistance, its Deputy Defense Minister and senior Ukrainian commanders claimed. The active areas were: around Bakhmut; in western Zaporizhzhia toward Mala Tokmachka, and; near the administrative border between eastern Zaporizhzhia and western Donetsk regions, including intense fighting around Makarivka. New Ukrainian probing attacks were reported at Vuhledar (Donetsk), and Novodanilivka and Novopokrovky (regional border area). The Ukrainian offensive is facing “fierce fighting, and air and artillery superiority of the enemy, which is holding on to its positions,” said a senior Ukrainian military officer.  

2.     Denmark and the Netherlands announced a joint plan to provide F-16 fighter training to Ukranian pilots “immediately after the summer holidays.” Ukraine’s Defense Minister said that the overall training plan would be finalized by the NATO Summit in Vilnius in July. The Danish Defense Minister said that “we are still very far from having these aircraft potentially entering the arsenal of the Ukrainian Air Force.” The two countries also announced the financing of 14 new Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

3.     Following on from the Ramstein meeting, Ukraine’s allies committed more military aid. Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK and the US announced “hundreds of short and medium range air defense missiles and associated systems” to be delivered within several weeks. Germany announced the transfer of 16 Zestro trucks, two Wisent mine clearing tanks and four other vehicles, as well as 300,000 first aid kits. Spain pledged four additional Leopard 2 tanks, 20 M113 armored personnel carriers and a field hospital.

4.     Russia undertook overnight Shahed drone and missile attacks of Ukraine’s southern regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Mykolayiv. One of four deployed Kh-101/555 missiles was destroyed; all 20 deployed drones were destroyed.

5.     The European Parliament “condemned in the strongest possible terms the destruction by Russia of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, 2023.” Its resolution also called for Russia to be held accountable in line with international law.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukrainian forces have yet to launch counteroffensives “as such,” but acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive actions – which may mean that the main efforts are yet to come.

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar, a key spokesperson for the offensive, said:

·      In eastern Ukraine, Russia is concentrating forces and resources, and redeploying reserves from other areas, including airborne assault troops.

·      Advances of approximately one kilometer took place in the theaters of Bakhmut, western Zaporizhzhia and the border area between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

·      Russian losses in the Bakhmut area are 8.7 times greater than Ukrainian losses and 5.3 times greater on the southern front.

A.    TO518 / Mokry Yali River Axis – boundary of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

·      Intense fighting at Makarivka at the southern end of the Ukrainian advance thus far – and 5 to 10 kilometers away from Russia’s “third” line of defense.

·      Ukrainian probing assaults near Novodanilivka and Novopokrovky.

·      A Russian Ka-52 assault helicopter and 14 tanks were claimed as destroyed by Ukrainian forces.

B.    Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Increased Ukrainian probing activity south and southwest of Orikhiv following improved weather, Russian sources reported.

·      Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov claimed that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to three kilometers in this district.

C.     Bakhmut

·      Ukrainian spokespersons claimed traction in pushes on the Rosdolivka-Krasnopilivka and Brekhivka-Yahidne flanks of the city.

D.    Other Theaters

·      Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said Ukrainian forces are making progress near Vuhledar [of up to 1 kilometer] in the eastern Donetsk Region. "Our troops are advancing near Vuhledar. The destruction of enemy forces continues," Tarnavsky said.

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) June 14 campaign assessment highlights:

·      Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made gains on June 15.

·      Russian milbloggers continue to credit alleged superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and defensive doctrine for Russian forces’ successful defenses against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.

·      The Russian military is advancing initial efforts to stand up new corps- and army-level formations to implement Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced intent to conduct large-scale force restructuring by 2026, though these new formations are not yet staffed and operational.

·      Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov deployed Chechen “Akhmat” special forces to border areas in the Belgorod Region, likely as part of a continued effort to align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

·      Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

·      Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut, and Russian forces have gained territory as of June 15.

·      Ukrainian and Russian forces reportedly continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the western Donetsk Region.

·      Ukrainian partisans reportedly sabotaged a railway in occupied Melitopol, though ISW has observed no visual confirmation or Russian corroboration of the attack.

 President Zelensky’s Message

“Please always remember that all of us in Ukraine owe our lives to those who stood up to defend the lives of our people and our independence. Respect for our warriors, respect for the families of our warriors, respect for the wives and husbands of all those who have stood up to defend the state is a must. 

“Gratitude to these people is a must. Ukraine knows how to be grateful, and it should be shown every day.” –  Volodymyr Zelensky