ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023

Key Takeaways:

· Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.

· Likely Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military assets in occupied Crimea, temporarily disrupting Russian logistics through Crimea on July 24.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an article published on July 24 likely intended to mitigate damage to Russia’s position in Africa and his own reputation resulting from Russia’s withdrawal from the Ukraine-Russia grain deal, Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain and port facilities, and Putin’s inability to attend the upcoming BRICS summit due to the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant issued for him.

· Russia conducted another drone strike on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast overnight on July 23-24.

· Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along at least three sectors of the front on July 24 and have reportedly advanced in certain areas.

· The Kremlin continues to codify domestic repression into Russian law, generating minimal opposition from select Russian lawmakers.

· Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made marginal gains south of Kreminna.

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· Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, and in the Bakhmut area and reportedly advanced in the Bakhmut area.

· Russian forces conducted offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and did not make any confirmed or claimed gains.

· Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in the Orikhiv area.

· Russian officials continue to highlight the claimed successes of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).

· Ukrainian officials continue to reveal the involvement of Belarusian entities in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

Authors: Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

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