Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for August 8: ‘Alligator Down’

Snapshot

Officially, there were limited on-the-ground developments across the 1,000-kilometer front of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Unofficially, there may be more going on than spokespersons are saying along the islands of the Dnipro River. In the meantime, Russia slaughtered Ukrainian civilians with repeat missile attacks – and the Ukrainians took another Russian combat assault helicopter out of the sky on the southern front.

Analysis

Former NATO Supreme Commander Philip Breedlove said: “Ukraine is waging a war that it is used to waging; perhaps, they have not fully embraced the war of maneuver that we would like them to wage. But remember that maneuver warfare requires certain things, including air superiority over the battlefield. This is what we did not provide to Ukraine. We haven’t given them the opportunity to establish air superiority on the battlefield, so they adapt what they’ve learned to the battlefield in front of them. I think we should let them fight the way they hope to do best.”

Despite grave concerns and Western cynicism, the Ukrainian Air Force has not only survived during Russia’s full-scale invasion, but successfully reconfigured itself, including by retro-fitting old Soviet-era bombers with high-tech Western weaponry. Here’s an in-depth analysis by military expert David Axe in Forbes.

General Developments

At least 7 people have been killed and more than 60 injured by a Russian repeat missile attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, including in what President Zelensky described as “an ordinary residential building.” Pokrovsk lies 70 kilometers north-west of the city of Donetsk, held by Russia, and 50 kilometers from the frontline. Many were hurt when Russian forces hit the site a second time as rescue operations were underway – with 19 police and rescue workers among the injured.

Other Topics of Interest

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Zelensky acknowledged in an interview published on August 6 with Argentine news outlet La Nacion that the tempo of counteroffensive operations is slower than expected and stated that patience is necessary in order for Ukraine to win, ISW reported. Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces are in the offensive phase of operations and continue to hold the initiative.

·       Russian forces conducted offensive operations along: the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on the northern front; near Bakhmut and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on the eastern front; the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia regional border, and in western Zaporizhzhia on August 7. They made advances in certain areas, according to ISW.

Prominent tracker of independent satellite imagery, Brady Africk, identified that Russian forces have continued to strengthen and expand their defensive fortifications.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces launched 7 missiles, 42 airstrikes, and 66 attacks from MLRS rocket systems, according to Ukraine’s General Staff 06:00 report.

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Force has flown nine airstrikes, according to the General Staff.

Over the past 24 hours, 100 Ukrainian population settlements regions were shelled by artillery or mortar fire, according to the General Staff.

The US is likely to announce a further $200 million military aid package for Ukraine today, including: demining equipment; Javelin, TOW and AT4 anti-tank systems; guns and ammunition; and missiles for Patriot and HIMARS systems.

Russian authorities claimed drones were shot down approaching Belgorod and in Kaluga region in Russia.

Operational Aspects near Kherson and in Crimea

Some prominent pro-Ukrainian milbloggers are claiming Ukrainian advances along the Dnipro River near Kherson in preparation for the opening of a further major front. They claim Ukrainian troops secured a further bridgehead at Hola Prystan, as well as existing ones at Oleshky and near the Antonivka Bridge. There has been virtually no comment from Ukraine’s official spokespeople about action on the Dnipro.

Ukrainian southern forces spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Ukrainian strikes on the Chonhar and Henichesk bridges in Crimea were intended to specifically target Russian plans and strategies and inhibit the ability of Russian forces to bring supplies and personnel to the front, ISW reported. Humenyuk also emphasized that Russian forces must now route supplies and personnel through Armyansk, directly on the border between the Kherson Region and Crimea and within 80 kilometers of the frontline.

About Crimea and the Black Sea, a pro-Russian Telegram channel wrote: “Ukrainian pirates are turning to attacks on civilian shipping in the region. It is no longer possible to ignore the problem – the key transport artery of the country is under threat.”

Operational Aspects on the Northern Front

Two civilians were killed by Russian forces using guided aerial bombs on the village of Kruhliakivka in Kharkiv region, according to the local Governor. 

Operational Aspects on the Southern Front

A Russian Ka-52 Alligator assault helicopter was downed near Robotyne, according to the General Staff of the AFU.

Some pro-Ukrainian milbloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces have breached the Surovikin Line at Robotyne and that the point is now fully contested.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia regional areas) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia Region) axes, according to ISW.

Pro-Ukrainian milbloggers claimed that “the AFU continues its counteroffensive through Urozhayne and south of Staromaiorske and also west to Novodonesk… The AFU is less than 8 kilometers from the only fortification line on the Surovikin Line between where they are now and Mariupol.”