EXPLAINED: How Ukraine Could Soon Achieve a ‘Significant Breakthrough’ in the South

There was lots of positive news for Ukraine over the weekend, not least a report from the general leading the counteroffensive in the south who said Kyiv’s army had broken through Russian lines.

What’s the latest on the ground?

“On the left flank (near the village of Verbove) we have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further," Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN on Saturday.

The news was confirmed by Western analysts on Sunday, with geolocated footage showing Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles operating along Verbove’s western outskirts, representing the first time they had been spotted there since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion.

The dire situation for Russia’s troops was also confirmed by pro-Kremlin sources, with some even calling out their Ministry of Defense for trying to conceal Ukraine’s recent advances.

A Russian airborne (VDV) unit conceded Ukraine’s troops now held around half of Verbove, reporting they are also pressing eastwards as well.

In the wake of the Kremlin’s efforts to muzzle media reports of its ground forces’ failures, the Russian unit commented online, “For how long can [Sergei] Shoigu’s Ministry of Defense hide the breakthrough in Verbove?”

Meanwhile, the post from the “Teplinsky” VDV unit painted an even grimmer picture, with AFU units attacking north of the city, and could completely cut off the 56th VDV Regiment from the rest of their Russian units.

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“Now there is a real threat of the enemy reaching the rear of the 56th Airborne Regiment 7th Airborne Division in the area of the settlement, Novofedorivka,” the unit wrote on Telegram.

“Our guys fight not for the sake of carrying out combat missions, but for the sake of preserving the lives of their friends in the platoon, the same situation we saw in Afghanistan before the withdrawal of troops, the same thing happened before the end of hostilities in the Chechen wars… People are tired. There are no rotations, no vacations.”

The sentiment was confirmed by several Russian military bloggers who agree that the Ukrainians are improving their positions in Novofedorivka and in several other positions around Verbove.

How significant is this?

Ukraine’s forces have the upper hand in the area but have still not achieved what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) calls a “operationally significant breakthrough.”

In its daily assessment on Sunday, the ISW outlined three factors that need to hold true for this to occur:

1. Russian forces do not have the necessary reserves or combat power to maintain Russian defenses in the western Zaporizhzhia Region;
2. Ukrainian forces retain enough combat power to continue pushing after exhausting Russian combat power; and
3. Russian defensive positions behind the current battle area are not as heavily mined or well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian forces have breached.

The ISW added: “There are indicators that these assumptions remain valid as of this writing. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed to the western Zaporizhzhia Region to completely man its defenses in depth and that Ukrainian forces should be able to operate through Russian field fortifications more rapidly if they are not properly manned.”

Several factors will influence the course of events – Ukraine’s offensive actions around Bakhmut are diverting Russia’s troops from the south where they could help fend off Kyiv’s attacks, severely depleting their reserves.

On the other hand, it’s not clear exactly how much Ukraine has in reserve at this moment to keep up the necessary pressure.

Then there are the Russian defenses – the ISW writes: “It also remains unclear how heavily mined or well prepared the Russian positions south of the current battle area are.”

What is Ukraine hoping to achieve?

Tarnavsky said a major breakthrough for the counteroffensive would be if Kyiv recaptured the city of Tokmak – 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the front line – which fell to Russian forces at the start of their invasion.

Retaking Tokmak would allow Ukrainian forces to push further towards occupied Melitopol and annexed Crimea, AFP reports.

“I think it [a breakthrough] would happen after Tokmak,” he said, but warned: “At the moment [Russian forces] are relying on the depth of their defensive line there.”

What other factors are in play?

It has been assumed by some commentators and analysts that the approaching winter weather could slow or halt Ukraine’s offensive actions, but Tarnavsky played down this assessment.

“The weather can be a serious obstacle during advance, but considering how we move forward, mostly without vehicles, I don't think [it] will heavily influence the counteroffensive," he said.

He gave some insight into the type of fighting taking place in the south, 19 months into Moscow's invasion: “Right now, neither the enemy nor us uses large formations, companies, battalions or brigades. We use assault squads, groups of 10 to 15 men,” he said.

“They conduct titanic work of concentrating enemy fire on them and using all the means they have to use to survive.”

The interview was published a day after Kyiv struck Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea, claiming to have killed “senior” commanders.

Tarnavsky said the counteroffensive’s success depends not only on what happens on the front, but also “destroying command centers” that create “a mess on the battlefield.”

He added that strikes on Crimea improved morale for Ukrainian troops: “It helps us but it also gives us hope for the future.”

What’s the bottom line?

The ISW concludes: “The Ukrainian counteroffensive is in an extremely dynamic phase and ISW is not prepared to offer any confident forecast of events despite recent positive indicators.

“Recent promising reports of Ukrainian tactical progress, including breaking through some Russian field fortifications, in the Orikhiv area should not be read as a guarantee that Ukraine is on the cusp of a significant operational success.

“Observers should be patient with Ukraine’s campaign design and should expect Ukraine’s counteroffensive to continue through winter 2023 and into spring 2024. Ukraine does not need to achieve a sudden and dramatic deep penetration to achieve success.”